今年11月8日，美国人民将投票选出总统。但是赢得选票最多的候选人未必是最终赢家。
Instead, the U.S. has a complicated system called the Electoral College. In that system, each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia casts votes for the president.
相反，美国有一种被称选举人团的复杂制度。在此制度中，美国50个州和哥伦比亚特区各自为总统投票。
Under the Electoral College, not every state is equally important. In the 2016 election – as in past elections – only a few states will really matter.
根据选举人团制度，并非每个州都同等重要。在2016年以及过去的选举中，只有少数几个州真正具备影响力。
Not the biggest states. Not the most heavily populated states. The swing states.
它们并非是面积最大的州，也不是人口最多的州，正确答案是摇摆州。
Swing states vs. safe states
摇摆州vs安全州
In the last four elections, eighty percent of U.S. states selected the presidential candidate from the same political party every time.
在过去四届选举中，80%的美国州每次都选择了来自同一政党的总统候选人。
For example, the majority of voters in the states of Alaska and Idaho consistently voted for the Republican presidential candidate. The majority of voters in the states of Minnesota and New York consistently voted for the的.
例如，阿拉斯加州和爱达荷州的绝大多数选民一致投票给共和党总统候选人。明尼苏达州和纽约州的绝大多数选民一致投票给民主党人。
As a result, the candidates do not usually spend much time or money campaigning in those "safe states." Instead, they focus on the swing states, where no one knows which candidate is likely to win.
这样一来，候选人通常不会花太多时间和资金在这些安全州竞选。相反，他们会专注于摇摆州，这些州没人知道哪位候选人可能会获胜。
In 2016, the swing states are: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.
2016年的摇摆州是科罗拉多州、佛罗里达州、爱荷华州、内华达州、新罕布什尔州、俄亥俄州、宾夕法尼亚州、弗吉尼亚州以及威斯康辛州。
None is more important than Ohio. That state has voted for every winning presidential candidate since 1964.
没有哪个州能比俄亥俄州更重要。自1964年以来，该州每次都投给了最终获胜的总统候选人。
Of course, most voters will mark ballots in safe states, not swing states. And because all but two states follow a winner-takes-all rule, most states go to the candidate whom the majority of voters choose.
当然，投票人更多的是安全州，而不是摇摆州。而由于除了两个州以外的所有州都遵循“胜者全得”制度，大多数州（的选举人票）都归于获得更多选民票数的候选人。
So, a voter in Minnesota could mark a ballot for Republican Donald Trump. But, most other Minnesota voters will probably choose Democrat Hillary Clinton. As a result, all of Minnesota's 10 electoral votes will go to Clinton, and the Republican voter's ballot will not really do anything to help Trump.
所以，明尼苏达州的选民可能会投票给共和党人唐纳德·川普（Donald Trump）。但是其他大多数明尼苏达州选民将会投票给民主党人希拉里·克林顿（Hillary Clinton）。这样一来，明尼苏达州所有10张选举人票都将归希拉里，而（该州）共和党选民的投票不会对川普有任何实质帮助。
However, the voter's other choices may affect candidates for state and local offices. So it is important that people in safe states vote, too.
不过，该选民的其他选择可能会影响州和地方政府的候选人。所以，安全州的选民投票也很重要。
Are the Democrats one swing state away from winning?
民主党距离胜选只差一个摇摆州吗？
At this moment in history, the Electoral College system helps the Democrats. That is because states with the largest populations have recently voted for the Democratic presidential candidate. And, the more people a state has, the more votes it gets in the Electoral College.
在历史上的这个时刻，选举人团制度对民主党有利。这是因为人口最多的这些州最近都投票支持民主党总统候选人。而且，一个州的人口越多，获得的选举人票就越多。
The Washington Post newspaper notes that "the Democratic nominee begins at a significant advantage over the Republican one." It says the Democrats have the advantage no matter who the party's candidate is.
《华盛顿邮报》指出，“民主党总统候选人以一种对共和党总统选举人的显著优势起步。”该报称不管民主党的候选人是谁，该党都具备这种优势。
Consider the numbers. A candidate needs 270 out of 538 Electoral College votes to become president.
说到票数，候选人需要获得538张选举人票中的270张选票才能成为总统。
In the last six presidential elections, the Democratic candidate has won the same 19 states plus Washington, DC each time. Those areas together carry 242 Electoral College votes.
在过去6次总统大选中，民主党人每次都赢得了相同的19个州以及华盛顿特区。这些地区加起来一共持有242张选举人票。
If Democrat Hillary Clinton can win those areas this year, plus the swing state of Florida, she will earn 271 Electoral College votes –one more than she needs to win the presidency.
如果民主党人希拉里今年在这些地区获胜，加上佛罗里达州这个摇摆州，她就能获得271张选举人票，比她赢得总统选举还多出一票。
Republican Donald Trump has a harder path to victory. Thirteen states voted for the Republican candidate in each of the last six presidential elections. But many of them are small states. They have a total of only 102 electoral votes.
共和党人川普的胜选之路更为艰难。有13个州在过去6次总统大选中每次都为共和党投票，但是其中多数是小州。这些州一共只有102张选举人票。
As a result, Donald Trump must not only win those 13 states. He must also win several swing states – or even some traditionally Democratic states – to reach the 270 electoral votes he needs to win.
因此，川普不仅必须赢得这13个州，他还必须赢得几个摇摆州，或是一些传统上的民主党州，才能获得他胜选所需的270张选举人票。
Will Donald Trump change the map this year?
川普今年能改变这一选举地图吗？
Some Republicans are worried that Trump's path to victory may be even harder than that. The website TheWeek.com noted that Trump may do worse than lose the swing states this year. He may also lose some of the states that Republicans have historically won.
一些共和党人担心川普的胜选之路可能比这还要更为艰难。TheWeek.com网站指出，川普今年可能比丢掉摇摆州更为糟糕，他可能还会丢掉一些共和党历来胜选的州。
You see, although Trump is very popular with some voters, he is equally unpopular with others. As a result, some voters who usually choose the Republican candidate may choose the Democrat.
你看，虽然川普很受一些选民欢迎，他同样很不受另一些选民欢迎。其结果就是，一些通常投票给共和党人的选民可能会投票给民主党。
The Washington Post newspaper reports that some political experts are preparing to blame Donald Trump if the Republicans fail to win the presidency. But Post writer Chris Cillizza says the Republican Party has a problem that "goes deeper than Trump -- or any one candidate."
《华盛顿邮报》报道说，一些政治专家开始准备责怪川普，如果共和党未能赢得总统宝座的话。但是邮报撰稿人克里斯·席利萨（Chris Cillizza）表示，共和党还有一个问题比川普或任何候选人更为严重。
Cillizza says the real reason may be that the Republican Party has not been able to convince the increasing number of nonwhites in the U.S. to vote for its presidential candidates. He writes: "What has become increasingly clear is that any state with a large or growing nonwhite population has become more and more difficult for Republicans to win."
席利萨说，真正的原因可能在于，共和党一直未能说服美国人数不断增长的非白人投票给该党的总统选举人。他写道，“越来越清晰的一个事实就是，任何非白人人口众多或人数不断增长的州变得越来越难以让共和党人获胜。”
I'm Christopher Jones-Cruise.
我是克里斯托弗·琼斯-克鲁斯。(51VOA.COM对本文翻译保留全部权利，未经授权请勿转载，违者必究！)