洛杉矶 — 经济学者正在通过观察狼群和鱼群来洞悉金融世界的运作规律。这是普林斯顿大学科学家和今年的“泰勒环境成就奖”得主西蒙·莱文的观察。莱文教授因其跨越生物学和工商界的研究而获此殊荣。
Simon Levin is a trained mathematician who uses math to study biological systems. He says individuals in groups show similar behavior, whether they're wolves in the wild or traders on Wall Street.
数学专家出身的西蒙·莱文(Simon Levin)利用数学来研究生物系统。他说，群体中的个体表现出类似的行为，不管他们是旷野中的狼群还是华尔街的交易商。
“Individuals are competing for limited resources, enter into cooperative arrangements, exploitative arrangements, parasitic arrangements, so they really are the same sort of phenomena," Levin said. "So with some colleagues, I began looking at economic systems two decades ago.
他说：“个体为了有限的资源而竞争，他们达成各种协议安排，包括合作式的、剥削式的、寄生式的，所以，这些现象都是一样的。因此，我跟一些同事合作，开始在二十年前考察经济体系。”
In early 2008, Levin co-authored an article called “Ecology for Bankers” in the journal Nature, accurately predicting the financial collapse sparked by the problems in the housing mortgage market. He says the complex financial and banking systems were showing signs of strain that, in the world of biology, would signal a coming crisis.
2008年初，莱文与人合写了题为《银行家生态学》的文章，发表在《自然》杂志上，准确地预测了由房贷市场触发的金融危机。他说，复杂交错的金融和银行体系已显现出不堪重负的迹象，如果在自然生物界，这将预示危机的到来。
“The systems were becoming more and more interconnected, and when ecological systems become so interconnected, they run the risk of collapse," he said.
他说：“这些系统变得越来越彼此相连，当生态系统变得如此相连的时候，就会有崩溃的风险。”
He is now turning his attention to threats in the natural world as the oceans and climate systems face increasing strains caused by human activity.
如今，在海洋和气候系统因为人类活动而面临越来越大的压力之际，莱文教授又把注意力转移到自然界的威胁。
“So we study fish schools, we study bird flocks. Of course, we study groups of animals like wolves or wildebeest to understand how they are organized and to understand how they’ve dealt with the problems of collectives," said Levin.
“所以，我们研究鱼群，研究鸟群,”他说，“当然，我们还研究狼和牛羚等群居动物，以了解它们是如何组织起来的，又是如何应对集体问题的。”
Levin says complex systems need resilient responses to cope with emerging threats, and that is a challenge in our interconnected world, where global links create added stresses on fragile organizations.
莱文说，复杂的体系需要具备坚韧顽强的回应能力来应对新出现的威胁，而这在当今彼此相连的世界中是一大挑战。全球化的连接加大了脆弱组织承受的压力。
“So we need a system that first of all has generalized responses that buy us time and secondly has adaptive responses specific to the particular threats. I think that's how we have to be dealing with threats to our society, whether it's to the financial system or bioterrorism," he said.
他说：“所以我们需要这样一个体系，首先，它要有整体性的回应，好为我们争取时间，其次，要有适应具体威胁的回应。我认为，这是我们如何应对社会面临的威胁的方式，不管是金融系统受到的威胁，还是生物恐怖主义威胁。”
Levin says there are no easy answers as we cope with threats in complex global systems, from climate change to financial crisis, but he says we humans have an advantage over our animal cousins because we can study the risks and devise effective responses.
莱文表示，当我们应对从气候变化到金融危机这些复杂的全球系统的威胁时，并没有现成的答案。但他表示，和人类的动物表亲相比，我们人类拥有优势，因为我们可以对社会和自然界的风险进行研究，并设计出有效的回应方式。