乌克兰困局对世界影响深远

KYIV — The continuing East-West standoff over Ukraine is being watched closely elsewhere in Europe and around the world, where the United States and its allies are trying to convince various countries to modify their policies.
基辅 — 欧洲和世界各地都在密切关注乌克兰的东西对峙。美国及其盟国正试图说服一些国家调整他们的政策。

U.S. officials travel the world to build support on a variety of issues, from Syria's civil war to China's designs on Pacific islands to Iran's nuclear program and beyond.
美国官员出访世界各地,在一系列问题上寻求支持,这些问题包括叙利亚内战、中国对太平洋岛屿的图谋、伊朗的核项目等等。

Some analysts, however, believe the Western response to Russia's moves in Ukraine has undermined those efforts.
不过,一些分析人士认为,西方对俄罗斯在乌克兰问题上的举动所作的回应,已经破坏了这些努力。

"How are you going to persuade other nuclear states like Iran, North Korea to give up their nuclear weapons, in exchange for what? They see that in Ukraine, these guarantees didn't work," said Olexiy Haran, professor of comparative politics at the University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy.
国立基辅大学-莫吉拉学院比较政治学教授欧莱克西·哈兰说: “你怎么说服伊朗、朝鲜这样的有核国家放弃手中的核武器?能换来什么?他们看到在乌克兰,那些保障都未实现。”

Haran pointed out that Russia was one of the guarantors of Ukraine's sovereignty, and then it took over Crimea and destabilized eastern Ukraine. "We expect a strong reaction from the international community because it undermines the whole system of security that is in Europe now," Haran said.
哈兰指出,俄罗斯是乌克兰主权保障国之一,可它却吞并了克里米亚,然后又破坏了乌克兰东部的稳定。他说:“我们指望国际社会能有强烈反应,因为它破坏了欧洲目前的整个安全体系。”

While Russia has used its military in Ukraine, the West has responded with soft power - diplomacy and economic sanctions. At London's Chatham House, U.S. policy analyst Xenia Dormandy said that was perceived around the world as weak.
俄罗斯在乌克兰动用了武力,而西方却用软实力来回应,包括外交和经济制裁。伦敦智库查塔姆研究所的美国政策分析员齐妮娅·多尔曼迪说,世界各地将这种反应视为软弱。

"That's a very, very dangerous message to take away because each situation is different," Dormandy noted. "That's how you get people crossing red lines, because of that ambiguity, and you have potential conflict.
她说:“作出这样的解读是非常、非常危险的,因为每个局势都不同。为什么总会有人越过红线,还可能爆发冲突,就因为这种歧义。”

Dormandy said the soft power response is not as weak as it might seem. "Absolutely not. The response will, in time, have significant effects on the Russian economy," Dormandy insisted.
多尔曼迪说,以软实力相回应,并不见得就是软弱。她说:“绝对不是。假以时日,这种回应将对俄罗斯经济造成严重后果。”

Some of those effects are already being felt. And Russian President Vladimir Putin has started to distance himself from the militants in eastern Ukraine, at least officially.
其中有些后果已经可以感觉到了。俄罗斯总统普京已开始跟东乌武装分子保持距离,至少在官面上如此。

Still, analysts agree the takeover of Crimea probably cannot be undone, and the danger still exists of a Russian invasion of eastern Ukraine.
不过,一些分析人士同意,克里米亚被吞并可能已是覆水难收了,而俄罗斯入侵乌克兰东部的危险也还存在。

So if other countries are indeed looking for lessons in the Ukraine crisis, it may be too early to know what they are.
因此如果真有其它国家想从乌克兰危机中吸取教训的话,这些教训究竟是什么?现在就断言可能还为时过早。(未经51VOA.COM授权请勿转载!)