中国2030年超越美国成经济强国 China Predicted to Overtake US as Economic Power by 2030

11 December, 2012

美国一项新的情报评估报告说,预计中国将于2030年超越美国,成为主要的经济强国。不过,美国将保持全球领导地位。

美国国家情报委员会国家情报总监办公室星期一发布了这项评估报告。

报告预测亚洲将在综合力量的各项指标上超越北美和欧洲的总和─包括国内生产总值、人口、军费开支和技术投资。

报告说,世界将在2030年看到一支庞大的中产阶级队伍,并将出现有史以来全球绝大多数人口不再贫困的局面。

报告注意到,全球人口将增长10亿左右至80亿,因此对资源会有更多需求。报告说,近一半的世界人口将生活在水资源严重紧缺的地区。

报告说,中国和印度在关键性资源短缺方面很脆弱。与此同时,有限的资源,如水和可耕地,可能会在非洲撒哈拉以南地区,南亚和中东部分地区增加国内冲突的风险。

报告说,美国有可能将保持能源独立,与此同时,俄罗斯、欧洲和日本预计出现缓慢的经济衰退。

评估报告预测,中东将继续是世界上最为动荡的地区,并且任何在亚洲和中东爆发的未来战争都可能会动用核武器,从而很难控制冲突规模,进而给全球造成冲击。

报告还警告,包括阿富汗、布隆迪、巴基斯坦、索马里和也门在内的国家面对成为失败国家的高风险。美国国家情报委员会每4年发布一次全球趋势报告。这是一份来自美国情报部门和美国国内外专家的情报分析报告。

A new U.S. intelligence assessment says China is expected to surpass the United States as the leading economic power by 2030, but the U.S. will remain a top world leader.

The assessment was released Monday by the National Intelligence Council of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.    
It predicts that Asia will surpass North America and Europe combined in terms of indices of overall power -- in gross domestic product, population size, military spending and technological investment.

The report says the world will see an expanding middle class by 2030, and for the first time a majority of the world's population will not be impoverished.

It notes an expected higher demand on resources, as the global population expands by about a billion to 8 billion people.  It says nearly half of the world's population will live in areas with severe water stress.

 It says China and India are vulnerable to shortages of key resources, while limited resources such as water and arable land could increase the risks of intrastate conflict in sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and parts of the Middle East.

It says the United States will likely be energy independent, while Russia, Europe and Japan are predicated to see slow economic declines.

The assessment anticipates that the Middle East will remain the world's most volatile region, and any future wars in Asia and the Middle East could include a nuclear component, making conflicts hard to contain and with global impact.

It also warns that countries including Afghanistan, Burundi, Pakistan, Somalia and Yemen face a high risk of state failure.

The National Intelligence Council publishes a global trends report every four years.  The report is an analysis of information from the U.S. intelligence community and experts in the U.S. and abroad.