国际货币基金组织下调全球经济增长预期 IMF Downgrades Outlook for World Economy to 3.7 Percent Growth

国际货币基金组织下调对全球经济增长的预期,原因是利率上升和贸易紧张局势加剧。

国际货币基金组织周一表示,全球经济今年将增长3.7%,与2017年相同,但低于7月份提出的3.9%的预测。该组织还下调了对欧元区的19个国家以及中欧和东欧、拉丁美洲、中东和撒哈拉以南非洲的经济前景。

此报告公布之际,国际货币基金组织及其姊妹贷款组织世界银行将于于10月12日至14日在印度尼西亚巴厘岛举行会议。

国际货币基金组织预计美国经济今年将增长2.9%,是自2005年以来的最快速度,与7月的预测相同。但明年美国经济增长将放缓至2.5%,原因是近期减税的影响正在消退,特朗普政府与中国的贸易战也会造成损失。

由于美国经济在大衰退结束后9年多来越来越强劲,美联储今年已经三次提高短期借贷利率。

国际货币基金组织将今年中国经济增长预期维持在6.6%不变,不过指出由于美国对中国进口产品加征关税产生的影响,预计明年将削减至6.2%,这将是中国自1990年以来增长最缓慢的一年。

国际货币基金组织对整个全球贸易的前景也看淡:该基金预计今年全球贸易增长4.2%,低于2017年的5.2%和7月预期的4.8%。

The International Monetary Fund is downgrading its outlook for the world economy, citing rising interest rates and growing tensions over trade.

The IMF said Monday that the global economy will grow 3.7 percent this year, the same as in 2017 but down from the 3.9 percent it was forecasting for 2018 in July. It slashed its outlook for the 19 countries that use the euro currency and for Central and Eastern Europe, Latin America, the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa.

The report comes on the eve of the Oct. 12-14 meetings in Bali, Indonesia, of the IMF and its sister lending organization, the World Bank.

The IMF expects the U.S. economy to grow 2.9 percent this year, the fastest pace since 2005 and unchanged from the July forecast. But it predicts that U.S. growth will slow to 2.5 percent next year as the effect of recent tax cuts wears off and as President Donald Trump's trade war with China takes a toll.

The Federal Reserve, the U.S. central bank, has raised short-term U.S. rates three times this year as the American economy gains strength more than nine years after the end of the Great Recession.

The fund kept its forecast for growth in the Chinese economy unchanged at 6.6 percent this year. Citing the impact of U.S. taxes on Chinese imports, however, the IMF shaved the outlook for China next year to 6.2 percent, which would be the country's slowest growth since 1990.

The outlook for world trade overall also darkened: The fund expects global trade to grow 4.2 percent this year, down from 5.2 percent in 2017 and from the 4.8 percent it expected in July.