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据报朝鲜导弹可能对美国西海岸构成威胁 Report:NKorea's ICBM Prototypes Getting 'Scary Good'

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一个主要研究机构说，近来朝鲜阅兵展示的弹道导弹可能比以往所判断的更先进，或许足以对美国西海岸构成威胁。
 
很多西方分析人士曾经认为，根据平壤2012年4月和今年7月阅兵展示的KN-08导弹的照片判断，那只是不能使用的粗糙模型。但美国约翰·霍普金斯大学的美韩研究所说，尽管只是模型，这种导弹看来更先进，已达到足以构成威胁的程度。
 
美韩研究所的报告说，KN-08导弹模型看上去显示朝鲜组装部件和运用技术的能力已经足以制造理论射程为5千5百公里至1万1千公里的导弹。这使朝鲜得以将其对美国本土进行核打击的威胁付诸实施。
 
美韩研究所的报告指出，“几乎可以肯定”朝鲜的KN-08导弹目前还不能使用，至少需要再试验一次。报告说，尽管如此，考虑到导弹模型展示的先进程度以及最近卫星照片显示朝鲜主要导弹发射场有所改进，这种试验随时可能进行。
 
A top research group says prototype ballistic missiles seen at recent North Korean military parades may be more advanced than earlier believed, possibly enough to threaten the U.S. west coast.

Many Western analysts dismissed the KN-08 missiles as primitive, non-operational mockups when they appeared in photos of Pyongyang military parades in April 2012 and again in July of this year. But the U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins University said the missiles, even if fakes, appear to be getting more advanced, and have reached the point of being what it called "scary good."

The institute's report said the missile mockups appear to show North Korea can assemble components and technologies "good enough to produce missiles with theoretical ranges from 5,500 to over 11,000 kilometers." That would easily be far enough for North Korea to make good on its threats of being able to strike the U.S. mainland with a nuclear warhead.

The report cautioned the KN-08s are "almost certainly" non-operational and would need to be tested at least once. It said, though, a test could occur any time, given the advanced state of the mockup hardware and recent satellite photos showing upgrades at North Korea's main missile launch site.