2060年美国1/4人口将会超过65岁

    The population of the United States will get older, even if the nation has high levels of immigration, suggest two reports from the U.S. Census Bureau.
    美国人口普查局的两份报告指出,即使美国的移民水平很高,美国人口还是会老龄化。

    One of the reports predicts that by the year 2060, around one fourth of the U.S. population will be over the age of 65. That same year, life expectancy could reach an all-time high of 85 years, the report notes.
    其中一份报告预测到2060年,美国约1/4人口将会超过65岁。报告指出,同一年美国人口的预期寿命可能会达到85岁的历史最高水平。

    The other study suggests that even by 2030, around 20 percent of the population will be 65 years of age or older.
    另一项研究表明,实际上到2030年,大约20%的美国人口将达到65岁以上。

    Census Bureau researchers expect the growth in life expectancy over the next 40 years to be slower than it has been over the past 40 years.
    美国人口普查局的研究人员估计,未来40年的预期寿命增长将比过去40年要慢。

    Between 1970 and 2015, life expectancy rose by almost 8 years. But researchers predict it will rise only about 6 years between 2017 and 2060.
    在1970年到2015年期间,预期寿命增长了将近8岁。但是研究人员预测在2017年到2060年之间,预期寿命只会增长6岁左右。

    One report notes that "preventable health risks — such as smoking, obesity, and, more recently, opioid-related overdoses" could play a role in slowed gains in life expectancy.
    一份报告指出,“吸烟、肥胖以及最近的阿片类相关药物过量等可预防的健康风险”可能会延缓预期寿命的增长。

    The United States could grow from about 332 million people today to around 404 million people by 2060. By 2028, the percentage of foreign-born people will be 14.9%, the Census Bureau predicts. That would be the highest percentage of foreign-born people since 1850.
    美国人口普查局预测,美国人口将从今天的3.32亿增长到2060年的4.04亿。到2028年,外国出生人口的比例将会达到14.9%。这将是1850年以来外国出生人口所占的最高比例。

    U.S. immigration policy will play an important role in population growth, notes the Census Bureau.
    美国人口普查局指出,美国移民政策将在人口增长中发挥重要作用。

    With high levels of immigration, defined as an increase of 50% over a 10-year period, the population could grow to 447 million people by 2060.
    按10年内增长50%的高移民率,美国人口到2060年将会增长到4.47亿。

    But with no immigration, the country could lose population after 2035.
    但是如果没有移民,美国可能会在2035年之后开始人口减少。

    Immigration will also determine the nation's diversity by 2060, said William Frey of The Brookings Institution research group.
    布鲁金斯学会研究小组的威廉·弗雷表示,到2060年,移民还将决定美国的多样性。

    By 2045, white people will represent less than half of the population under current projections, he said.
    他说,根据目前的预测,到2045年,白人将只占总人口的一半以下。

    "If immigration was stopped, then we will stay majority white until 2060 but barely at 51.1 percent," Frey said in an email. "But the story is different for the young under age 30 population."
    弗雷在邮件中表示:“如果停止移民,那么到2060年, 我们将能保持白人的多数优势,但是也只有51.1%,但是对于30岁以下年轻人来说情况就不同了。”

    Under current projections, that age group will become "minority white" in 2024. Without immigration, whites under age 30 will be in the minority by 2032, Frey said.
    按照目前预测,到2024年,该年龄组中的白人将会成为少数族群。如果没有移民,到2032年,30岁以下白人将会成为少数族群。

    Starting in 2030, international migration will be the biggest cause of population growth in the country.
    从2030年开始,国际移民将会成为美国人口增长的主要原因。

    I'm John Russell.
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