一份新报告称，冠状病毒的传播可能会使2020年首季度全球经济发生收缩。如果得到证实，这将是自十多年前国际金融危机以来全球经济活动的首次季度性下降。
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) released a special report on the effect of the virus Monday. The Paris-based OECD advises developed economies on policy.
经合组织周一发布了关于该病毒影响的特别报告。总部位于巴黎的经合组织为世界经济发达体提供政策咨询。
The report said the world economy is still expected to grow both this year and next year. But the OECD lowered its estimate for international growth in 2020 by half a percentage point, to 2.4 percent. It said the growth rate could go as low as 1.5 percent if the virus lasts long and spreads widely.
该报告称，今明两年全球经济仍然有望取得增长。但是经合组织将其对2020年全球增长的估值调低了0.5个百分点至2.4%。该组织称，如果这种病毒持续很长时间并大范围传播，增长率可能会降低至1.5%。
The new coronavirus has caused more than 3,000 deaths worldwide. In addition to the "human suffering" from the virus, the report said that "economic prospects remain...very uncertain."
新型冠状病毒已经在全球造成3千多人死亡。报告称，除了病毒给人类带来的痛苦之外，经济前景仍然非常不确定。
The last time the world economy shrank on a quarter-on-quarter basis was at the end of 2008. At that time, a shock to financial businesses caused problems for companies around the world. Many people lost their jobs. The world economy continued to shrink through 2009.
世界经济上次出现季度环比收缩是在2008年底。当时，金融危机的冲击给世界各地公司带来了麻烦。很多人失业。世界经济在2009年继续收缩。
The OECD said China's reduced production is not only hurting Asia, but also companies that depend on Chinese goods.
经合组织表示，中国的减产不仅伤害了亚洲，还伤害了依赖中国商品的公司。
The report urged governments to act quickly to prevent contagion and bring back people's confidence in economic conditions. It also said that the effect of this virus is much greater than past outbreaks because the world's economy is "more interconnected." China, it added, has a lot more effect on trade, financial markets and tourism.
该报告督促各国政府迅速采取行动防止疫情蔓延，并恢复人们对经济状况的信心。报告还称，这种病毒的影响比以前爆发的疫情要大得多，因为世界经济“关联更紧。”该报告还补充说，中国对贸易、金融市场和旅游业的影响也更大。
China manufacturing down
中国制造业下滑
China's viral outbreak has already caused problems for international supply chains.
这种病毒在中国的爆发已经给全球供应链造成了麻烦。
Chinese manufacturing fell in February as anti-virus controls had an effect on the world's second largest economy. Chinese factory activity fell to its lowest rate and to its lowest level on record. That information is based on studies by a business magazine, a government agency and an industry group.
由于防病毒措施对中国这个全球第二大经济体产生影响，中国制造业在2月份有所下滑。中国工厂活动跌至历史最低水平。该信息是基于商业杂志、政府机构和行业组织的研究。
Chinese factories supply the products and parts for most of the world's smartphones, household goods and other products. In China, sales of houses, cars and other big purchases fell in recent weeks.
中国工厂为全球大多数智能手机、家居用品以及其它产品提供产品和零部件。中国的房屋和汽车等大宗商品销售最近几周也有所下降。
China has tried to calm investors, industries and workers. The government has cut tax rates and offered aid to businesses.
中国已经试图安抚投资者、各行业以及工人。政府已经减税并向企业提供援助。
Economists, however, are worrying about the future. If the virus spreads, people will stop traveling, eating at restaurants, and going to stores. There may be large quarantines.
然而经济学家对未来充满担忧。如果病毒蔓延，人们将会停止旅行、去餐馆吃饭以及购物。可能还会有大规模隔离。
Thierry Breton works for the European Union and oversees the EU's markets. He estimated Monday that the virus has cost Europe 2 billion euros this year because of a decrease in tourism from China. Many expect the situation in Europe will worsen. The virus has struck Italy, and events like the yearly Venice Carnival have been cancelled.
蒂埃利·布雷顿在欧盟负责监督欧洲市场。他周一估计，由于中国游客减少，该病毒今年已经给欧洲造成了20亿欧元的损失。很多人预计欧洲局势将会恶化。该病毒已经侵袭了意大利，威尼斯狂欢节之类的年度活动也已经被取消。
Investors seem to expect central banks to lower interest rates to help the economy. Experts, however, say that will not solve the problem.
投资者似乎期望央行降息以挽救经济。然而专家表示，这不能解决问题。
Lower rates can help people and businesses borrow and spend money. That can help push up economic activity. But lower rates cannot make sick people healthy. It also cannot reopen factories whose workers are kept home because of quarantines or restart supply chains in areas affected by the outbreak.
低利率有助于人们和企业借贷和消费。这有助于推动经济活动上升。但是低利率不能使病人康复。它也无法让员工被居家隔离的工厂复工，或是在受疫情影响的地区重新启动供应链。
I'm Susan Shand.
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