研究表明到2070年全球1/3人口可能面临极度高温

    A new study predicts that in just 50 years, as many as 3.5 billion people could be facing "near-unlivable" heat.
    一项新的研究预测,在短短50年时间内,多达35亿人可能会面临“几乎不适宜居住的”高温。

    The extreme heat would be a result of rising world temperatures linked to human-made climate change, the study suggests.
    该研究表明,极端高温可能是人为气候变化造成全球气温升高所导致的结果。

    Researchers from the United States, China and Europe were involved in the study. The Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences reported the results.
    来自美国、中国和欧洲的研究人员参与了这项研究。《美国国家科学院院刊》报道了这一研究结果。

    Marten Scheffer is an ecologist at Wageningen University in the Netherlands. He helped lead the research.
    马丁·谢弗是荷兰瓦赫宁根大学的生态学家。他协助领导了这项研究。

    He said the research shows that historically, human populations have mostly lived in areas where the average yearly temperature was between 11 to 15 degrees Celsius. A smaller number lived where the average temperature was higher, between 20 to 25 degrees.
    他称研究表明,从历史上看,人类大多生活在年均气温在11-15摄氏度之间的地区。极少数人居住在平均温度更高的地区,介于20-25摄氏度之间。

    Scheffer said that since these population centers have existed for several thousand years, it suggests the areas represent a climate "niche" necessary for human survival.
    谢弗表示,由于这些人口中心已经存在了数千年,这表明这些地区代表了人类生存所必需的气候“生态位”。

    But if world temperatures keep rising, this could put large parts of the population in areas too warm to live in without cooling technology, Scheffer and his team reported.
    谢弗和他的团队报告称,但是如果全球气温持续升高,这可能会导致很大一部分居住在过热地区的人口离不开制冷技术。

    The exact number of people who could be put at risk depends on whether pollutant levels of heat-trapping carbon dioxide can be reduced and how fast the world population will grow.
    可能遭受威胁的具体人数取决于导致温室效应的二氧化碳的污染物水平以及世界人口的增长速度。

    Under the worst-case predictions for population growth and carbon pollution, the study estimates about 3.5 billion people could be living in extremely hot areas by 2070. That would be one-third of the world's projected population.
    根据对人口增长和碳污染的最恶劣预测,该研究估计到2070年将会有约35亿人生活在极热地区。这将是世界预期人口的1/3。

    Even predictions considered by some scientists to be more likely estimate at least two billion people will be living in places too hot to survive without air conditioning in 2070, the study found.
    研究发现,一些科学家甚至预测到2070年,可能至少有20亿人将会生活在没有空调就热到无法生存的地区。

    "It's a huge amount and it's a short time. This is why we're worried," Cornell University climate scientist Natalie Mahowald told The Associated Press. She was not part of the study. But she and other outside scientists said the research makes sense and presents the urgency of man-made climate change differently than past studies.
    康奈尔大学气候科学家纳塔莉·马哈瓦尔德对美联社表示:“这是一个天文数字,而且距离现在的时间也很短,这就是我们担心的原因。”她没有参与这项研究。但是她和局外科学家表示,这项研究很有意义,并且提出了人为气候变化的紧迫性,这跟以往研究大不相同。

    The new study used an unusual method to identify the climate niches the research is based on. A team of international scientists studied humans like they do bears, birds and bees to find the areas where human populations live and thrive. The researchers looked back 6,000 years to create the niche areas.
    这项新研究采用了一种不寻常的方法来确定这项研究所基于的气候生态位。一个国际科学家团队像研究熊、鸟和蜜蜂一样研究了人类,以找出人类赖以生存和繁衍的地区。这些研究人员回顾了6000年以建立生态位地区。

    Currently, about 20 million people live in places with an average yearly temperature greater than 29 degrees Celsius. The areas make up less than 1 percent of Earth's land, and mostly near the Sahara Desert. But as the world gets warmer and more crowded, the study predicts that large areas of Africa, Asia, South America and Australia will also likely be in the same temperature range.
    目前约有2千万人生活在年均气温高于29摄氏度的地区。这些地区不到地球土地的1%,而且大部分都在撒哈拉沙漠附近。但是随着全球变暖和变拥挤,该研究预计非洲、亚洲、南美和澳大利亚的大部分地区可能也将处于相同的温度范围之内。

    Study co-writer Chi Xu of China's Nanjing University predicts that well over 1 billion people will be affected, possibly billions more. But he and other researchers noted there is still time for humans to make climate changing action to slow Earth's warming.
    来自中国南京大学的研究合著者徐驰预测将会有超过10亿人,甚至可能是数十亿人受到影响。但是他和其他研究人员指出,人类还有时间采取气候变化行动来减缓地球变暖。

    Marten Scheffer said in a statement the study's predictions would mean "unlivable" conditions "for the ordinary, for poor people, for the average world citizen." He said such conditions could lead to major climate migrations from the hottest areas of the world.
    谢弗在一份声明中表示,这项研究的预测可能意味着环境“对普通人、穷人,全球的普通公民而言无法生存”。他说,这种环境可能会导致全球最热地区的重大气候迁徙。

    Tim Lenton is a climate scientist and director of the Global Systems Institute at Britain's University of Exeter. He helped lead the research. Lenton said countries like Nigeria - with a population expected to grow 300 percent by the end of the century - would likely face major difficulties if the predicted warmer conditions develop.
    蒂姆·伦顿是英国埃克塞特大学的气候科学家兼全球系统研究所所长。他协助领导了这项研究。伦顿表示,像尼日利亚这样的国家到本世纪末人口预计将会增长300%,如果预期变暖状况继续发展,这些国家可能会面临重大困难。

    I'm Bryan Lynn.
    我是布莱恩·琳恩。(51VOA.COM原创翻译,禁止转载,违者必究!)