越南经济从中美贸易战中获得增长

    Vietnam is expecting solid growth this year as it receives an economic lift from the U.S.-China trade war.
    由于受到中美贸易战的影响,预计越南经济今年将会实现稳健增长。

    Vietnamese officials have predicted the country's $300 billion economy will grow between 6.6 to 6.8 percent this year. SSI Research, based in Hanoi, reported the estimate.
    越南官员预计今年将会实现6.6%到6.8%的增长,越南经济规模达3000亿美元。总部设在河内的SSI研究机构报告了这一估值。

    The research company said strength in manufacturing and exports were mainly responsible for the 2019 prediction. Both areas have experienced growth over the past year as companies moved production to Vietnam from China.
    这家研究公司表示,2019年的预计增长主要来自于制造业和出口的强劲。随着各公司将生产从中国转移到越南,这两大领域在过去一年里都得到了增长。

    Also, Vietnam's past economy, measured by gross domestic product, or GDP, proved to be larger than had been thought. "They found that they understated their GDP itself," Singapore-based economist Song Seng Wun told VOA.
    此外,越南过去以国内生产总值来衡量的经济实际上也比人们想象的要更大。新加坡经济学家宋诚焕对美国之音表示:“越南发现自己低估了本国的国内生产总值。”

    Earnings results from some companies were not included in earlier GDP estimates. So in August, the government raised its reported GDP by 25.4 percent for money discovered between 2010 and 2017, Vietnamese media reported.
    越南媒体报道称,一些公司的盈利未被纳入早期的国内生产总值估值中。因此越南政府今年8月将该国2010年到2017年间报告的国内生产总值提高了25.4%,原因就在于这些发现的资金。

    Vietnam has depended heavily on export manufacturing since the late 1980s. That policy has helped Vietnam become one of Asia's fastest-growing economies.
    自上世纪80年代以来,越南一直严重依赖于出口制造业。该政策帮助越南成为了亚洲增长最快的经济体之一。

    Economic experts say Vietnam is also getting a lift from companies seeking to find a way around problems caused by U.S.-China trade tension.
    经济专家表示,越南也开始搭上那些寻求解决中美贸易紧张局势所导致问题的公司。

    Some companies facing U.S. tariffs on goods shipped from China are moving business to Vietnam. Some of those companies can produce and ship the same goods from Vietnam without paying U.S. tariffs on a total of $550 billion in goods now made in China.
    一些面临美国对中国出口货物征收关税问题的公司开始向越南转移业务。其中一些公司可以从越南生产和出口同类货物,而无需支付美国对中国价值总计5500亿美元货物所征收的关税。

    Frederick Burke is a lawyer with Baker McKenzie in Ho Chi Minh City. He told VOA that such market moves to avoid tariffs are now becoming "a real thing" in Vietnam. "It's really happening, so that's going to be driving up prices and driving up GDP a bit," Burke said.
    弗雷德里克·伯克是胡志明市贝克·麦坚时律师事务所的一名律师。他对美国之音表示,这类避免关税的市场举措现在在越南变成了“真实的事情。”伯克表示:“这些真的发生了,这会推高价格并推动国内生产总值的增长。”

    One example is Chinese-based wireless earphone maker GoerTek. The company plans to move production of Apple AirPods to Vietnam for an investment of $260 million, SSI Research said in July. In another case, Google plans to move Pixel smartphone production from China to Vietnam, the Nikkei Asian Review reported in August. Google has not commented on the report.
    总部位于中国的无线耳机制造商歌尔声学就是其中一个例子。SSI研究机构在7月份表示,该公司计划投资2.6亿美元将苹果AirPods的生产转移到越南。在另一个案例中,日经新闻亚洲评论8月份报道称,谷歌计划将Pixel智能手机产品从中国转移到越南。谷歌公司对此没有发表评论。

    Kevin Snowball is the Chief Investment Officer for PXP Vietnam Asset Management in Ho Chi Minh City. He said some companies are even trying to send goods made in China to Vietnam and then re-labeling them as "made in Vietnam" for shipment to the U.S.
    凯文·斯诺鲍尔是胡志明市PXP越南资产管理公司的首席投资官。他说,一些公司甚至试图将在中国生产的产品运到越南,然后换上“越南制造”的标签运往美国。

    Burke says the increase in investment by manufacturers attempting to avoid China is putting pressure on land, labor and organizational resources.
    伯克表示,试图避开中国的制造商不断加大投资给越南的土地、劳动力和机构资源都带来了压力。

    Low labor costs, pro-investment policies and a lack of trade tension with the U.S. has readied Vietnam to enter into a trade agreement with the European Union. Vietnam joined the 11-country Trans Pacific Partnership free trade deal this year.
    低劳动力成本、亲投资政策以及与美国贸易关系和谐使得越南做好了跟欧盟达成贸易协议的准备。越南今年加入了由11国组成的跨太平洋伙伴关系自由贸易协定。

    Experts say Vietnam is also seeking to increase investments by software companies and computer parts manufacturers. Intel, Samsung Electronics and Foxconn Technology have all made major hardware investments.
    专家表示,越南也在寻求提高软件公司和电脑零件制造商的投资。英特尔、三星电子和富士康科技都做出了重大的硬件投资。

    Vietnam grew 7.1 percent in 2018, the highest level in 11 years. Snowball says a growth rate in the high sixes this year would be considered a "strong" showing.
    越南2018年增长了7.1%,这是11年来的最高水平。斯诺鲍尔表示,今年大6点几的增长率将被视为“强劲”表现。

    I'm Bryan Lynn.
    我是布莱恩·林恩。(51VOA.COM原创翻译,禁止转载,违者必究!)