The Right Timing for a Thaw in US-Iran Relations?

Jeff Seldin
September 24,2013

WASHINGTON — U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Iran's new foreign minister, Javid Zarif, are set to talk later this week at the United Nations as part of a meeting of world powers concerned about Tehran's nuclear program. Some analysts believe this may be the first step in a significant thaw in U.S.-Iran relations.

In Iran, memories of the massive celebrations following the election of President Hassan Rouhani remain fresh in the minds of many - as are the hopes that a new beginning with the U.S. and the rest of the world may be within reach.

As he departed Tehran for the U.N. on Monday, President Rouhani stoked those hopes anew when he promised to show the world Iran's "real face.

President Barack Obama has also raised the possibility of a thaw throughout his presidency, and indeed as far back as his first presidential campaign.

But now, as both men head to the U.N, those intentions will be put to the test.

George Perkovich is director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a long-time Iran observer.

“There's a lot of baggage that both sides have to empty in a sense if we are going to start clean," he said. "Americans profoundly distrust Iran. And what I like to say to people here [in Washington] is that the Iranian government distrusts America a thousand times more.

Yet even as much of the world remains suspicious of Iran's true intentions, many observers think this time conditions may be right for change.

Iran's economy has been badly damaged by sanctions and is struggling with soaring unemployment and inflation.

President Obama, already wary of U.S. involvement in Syria, may not want to resort to military force to put Iran's nuclear program out of business.

According to Michael O'Hanlon at the Brookings Institution, "there's a real possibility that if there's a genuine compromise here to be had, that both sides would actually grab it.

The question to be sorted out this week at the U.N. -- very likely behind the scenes -- is whether the beginnings of such a deal are indeed there for the making.