[ti:Economics Report] [ar:Voice of America] [al:VOA Special English] [by:WWW.51VOA.COM] [00:00.00]This is the VOA Special English [00:03.34]Economics Report. [00:05.04]The National Association for Business Economics [00:09.10]has its latest predictions [00:11.41]for the American economy. [00:13.43]Most of the forty-five business economists [00:17.24]questioned said they expect the recession [00:20.64]to end in the second half of the year. [00:24.10]But they also expect [00:26.21]a slower-than-usual recovery. [00:29.02]Still,there were more signs this week [00:32.64]that Americans are feeling better [00:35.04]about the economy. [00:36.71]The Conference Board said [00:38.94]its consumer confidence index [00:41.88]had its biggest jump in six years in May. [00:46.27]The National Association of Realtors [00:49.51]reported that sales of existing homes rose [00:53.41]about three percent from March to April. [00:57.21]The Commerce Department said [00:59.49]sales of new single-family houses also rose [01:04.31]but just by three-tenths of one percent. [01:08.40]The Federal Housing Finance Agency said [01:12.64]home prices fell seven percent [01:15.99]in the first three months of the year. [01:18.70]But that was less than they fell [01:22.00]at the end of two thousand eight [01:24.49]compared to a year earlier. [01:26.77]Housing recoveries [01:29.13]usually follow employment recoveries. [01:32.44]Experts say job losses might slow [01:36.88]later this year, [01:38.38]but the unemployment rate could rise [01:41.80]until the middle of next year. [01:44.43]Job losses help explain the latest numbers [01:49.40]from the Mortgage Bankers Association. [01:52.13]By the end of March, [01:54.76]twelve percent of homeowners with a mortgage [01:58.40]were late on loan payments [02:01.18]or in the process of losing their home. [02:04.54]California,Florida,Arizona and Nevada [02:09.91]drove up the national numbers. [02:12.46]Pete Kyle is a University [02:15.63]of Maryland finance professor. [02:18.11]He agrees that the economy [02:20.76]should begin to grow again [02:23.26]in the second half of the year. [02:25.86]But because of job conditions,he says, [02:29.77]the recovery is "not going to feel like [02:33.54] a recovery to the average person." [02:36.46]Unemployment was almost nine percent [02:40.40]in April, [02:41.39]the highest since the early eighties. [02:44.39]High unemployment reduces spending [02:48.21]which slows recovery. [02:50.55]Professor Kyle also points to [02:54.29]a weak property market, [02:56.12]both for housing and businesses. [02:59.02]But what really set this economic downturn [03:03.25]apart from others,he says, [03:05.60]was the severity of the banking crisis. [03:09.33]Many banks,he says, [03:12.28]are going to need additional capital [03:15.18]to deal with bad loans and heavy debt. [03:19.39]Heavy government debt only adds to unease [03:24.26]about the future [03:25.24]after the so-called Great Recession. [03:28.01]But President Obama says [03:30.64]"we have stepped back from the brink." [03:33.54]He says there is now some calm [03:36.86]that did not exist before. [03:39.77]But he also says Americans [03:43.21]cannot return to a "borrow-and-spend economy." [03:48.24]And that's the VOA Special English [03:51.48]Economics Report, [03:52.87]written by Mario Ritter. [03:54.79]I'm Steve Ember.