一些朝鲜专家担心该国领导人金正恩可能对自己影响2020年美国总统大选的能力过于自信。
North Korea said it wants the U.S. to agree to additional concessions in nuclear talks by December 31. It also has promised a "Christmas gift" for the United States. Some experts believe that could mean a possible long-range missile test.
朝鲜表示，希望美国在12月31日前同意在核谈判中做出更多让步。它还承诺给美国送上一份“圣诞大礼。”一些专家认为，这或许意味着朝鲜可能要进行远程导弹试验。
Such a move could damage nearly two years of diplomacy between U.S. President Donald Trump and Kim. Additionally, it could suggest that Kim believes he can get a better deal. This is most likely because he considers Trump weakened by the impeachment process in the U.S. House of Representatives. He also may see a difficult reelection campaign that is set to enter a more demanding period of time.
这样的举动可能会损害美国总统川普和金正恩之间近两年的外交努力。此外，这可能表明金正恩认为他可以拿到一份更满意的协议。这可能是因为他认为川普会因受到众议院弹劾而软化。他还可能认为川普的连任会很艰难，会进入一个更为苛刻的时期。
Trump has described his meetings with Kim as a major foreign policy victory. He has sometimes linked North Korea with his 2020 reelection chances. There is, however, little evidence suggesting it will be a major issue for U.S. voters.
川普曾表示他与金正恩的会晤是一次外交政策的重大胜利。他有时会把自己2020年连任的机会与朝鲜联系起来。但是几乎没有任何证据表明这将会成为美国选民关注的主要议题。
North Korea has not directly threatened to interfere with the election. However, its state media have accused the U.S. of using the nuclear talks to serve as a foreign policy win for Trump during the election. North Korean officials also have said Trump must be in "great jitters" about North Korea's next move.
朝鲜没有直接威胁要干涉选举。然而，朝鲜官方媒体指责美国在选举期间将核谈判作为川普外交政策的胜利。朝鲜官员还表示，川普必定会对朝鲜的下一步行动深感不安。
"They truly believe they can influence the presidential election in November," said Bong Young-shik. He teaches at Seoul's Sogang University.
奉英植表示：“他们坚信自己可以影响来年11月的美国总统大选。”奉英植在首尔西江大学任教。
Trump takes credit... but little has been agreed to
川普揽功，但是核谈判所达成共识甚少
North Korea's actions may be the result of Trump's words. At times, he described the nuclear talks as having succeeded.
朝鲜的行为可能是川普言语刺激的结果。川普有时候会称核谈判是成功的。
After his first meeting with Kim in 2018, Trump said, "There is no longer a Nuclear Threat from North Korea." Experts note that North Korea never agreed to give up its nuclear weapons. They add that it has been increasing its nuclear weapons.
川普在2018年与金正恩会面后表示，“再也不会有来自朝鲜的核威胁。”专家们指出，朝鲜从未同意放弃其核武器。他们还称朝鲜一直在增加其核武器。
Trump has also taken credit for Kim's decision to observe a two-year-long suspension on long-range missile and nuclear tests. By threatening to end the suspension, Kim seems to be trying to improve his negotiating position.
川普还对金正恩决定暂停两年的远程导弹和核试验表示赞赏。金正恩似乎试图通过威胁要取消暂停试验来改善他的谈判立场。
Earlier this month, Trump warned Kim against causing problems during the U.S. presidential campaign.
本月初，川普警告金正恩在美国总统大选期间不要搞事。
"I'd be surprised if North Korea acted hostilely," Trump said in early December. "He knows I have an election coming up. I don't think he wants to interfere with that, but we'll have to see."
川普在12月初表示：“如果朝鲜采取敌对行动我会感到很惊讶。金正恩知道我即将进行大选。我认为他不会干涉大选，但是我们必须拭目以待。”
Not a big factor in 2020
并非2020年大选的主要因素
Public opinion studies suggest domestic, not foreign policy issues are the most important ones in U.S. presidential elections.
民意调查表明在美国总统大选中，最重要的是国内议题，而不是外交政策议题。
For example, studies show that only about 13 percent of voters said foreign policy was the most important issue during the 2016 presidential election.
例如，调查表明只有13%的选民称外交政策是2016年总统大选期间最重要的议题。
Before that election, the Pew Research Center reported that most voters said that Hillary Clinton would make better foreign policy decisions.
在那次选举前，皮尤调查中心报告称，大多数选民表示希拉里·克林顿将会作出更好的外交政策决策。
John Delury is a professor at Seoul's Yonsei University. He said "it would take a war really for North Korea to (effect) who the next American president is."
约翰·德勒里是首尔延世大学的教授。他说：“朝鲜真想要影响下届美国总统选举，得发动一场战争。”
Trump shrugs off deadline
川普无视最后期限
So far, Trump has said nothing about North Korea's time limit. In fact, Trump has rarely spoken about North Korea in the past several months, even as the country has carried out several short-range missile tests.
到目前为止，川普尚未对朝鲜的时限发表任何评论。实际上川普在过去几个月里也很少谈到朝鲜，哪怕朝鲜进行了几次短程导弹试验。
"He wants to be able to say he made a deal," said Gwenda Blair. She has written about the Trump family for many years.
格温达·布莱尔表示：“川普希望能够称他达成了协议。”布莱尔多年来写了很多关于川普家族的文章。
I'm Susan Shand.
我是苏珊·尚德。(51VOA.COM原创翻译，禁止转载，违者必究！)