自新冠肺炎大流行开始以来，美国大学入学人数减少了100万。研究人员估计过去10年减少的总数可能高达300万。
Education experts in the United States have recently talked about the reasons leading to the decline. They include lower birth rates, higher pay for most jobs during the pandemic and the rising cost of a college education.
美国教育专家最近谈到了导致下降的原因。其中包括出生率更低、大流行期间大多数工作薪酬更高以及大学教育成本的上涨。
However, education experts and economists are starting to think about the long-term effects if the drop continues. Some warn the decline could affect the U.S. as competing nations like China greatly increase their college attendance.
然而，教育专家和经济学家开始思考如果继续大学入学率下降会产生的长期影响。一些人警告说，这种下降可能会影响到美国，因为像中国这样的竞争对手的大学入学率都得到了极大地提高。
Jason Lane is the leader of the College of Education, Health and Society at Miami University in Ohio. He called it a "crisis" that is not widely recognized.
贾森·莱恩是俄亥俄州迈阿密大学教育、健康与社会学院的院长。他称这是一场未被广泛认识的“危机”。
With fewer people going to college, "society is going to be less healthy," Lane said. "It's going to be less economically successful. It's going to be harder to find folks to fill the jobs of the future..."
莱恩表示：“随着更少人上大学，社会将会变得更不健康，经济上的成功率会降低，会更难找到人来胜任未来的工作岗位。”
Adriana Lleras-Muney is an economist from the University of California-Los Angeles. She said the growing education gap could also worsen existing divisions over politics, socioeconomic status, race, and national origin.
阿德里亚娜·雷若斯-穆雷是加州大学洛杉矶分校的经济学家。她说，不断扩大的教育差距也可能会加剧现有的政治、社会经济地位、种族和国籍方面的分歧。
"We're seeing a lot more people moving into the very unlucky group instead of the lucky group," said Lleras-Muney. "That will be very bad for them personally. It will start showing up in their health, their likelihood of remaining in marriage — you name it."
雷若斯-穆雷表示：“我们看到越来越多人进入了非常不幸的群体，而不是幸运的群体。这对他们个人来说是非常糟糕的。这将开始体现在他们的健康状况、他们维持婚姻的可能性，以及你能想到的方方面面。”
And another expert, Awilda Rodriguez from the University of Michigan, observed that recent gains "in reducing class-based and racial inequality are being wiped away."
密歇根大学的另一位专家阿威尔达·罗德里格斯注意到，“在降低阶级和种族不平等方面”的近期成果正在被抹去。
Among the most affected, researchers from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center say, are children from poor families. And the number of young men starting college has also dropped by 10 percent in the last two years.
全美学生信息交换研究中心的研究人员表示，受影响最大的是贫困家庭的孩子。过去两年，年轻男性的大学入学数量也下降了10%。
The College Board says people who only finish high school will earn almost $25,000 per year less than people who finish college. Government agencies and the Pew Research Center note that those without college degrees run a risk of living in poverty or becoming unemployed. They are more likely to pay less tax, need government help, lead an unhealthy lifestyle, and die younger.
美国大学理事会表示，高中毕业生比本科毕业生的年收入要少接近2.5万美元。美国政府机构和皮尤研究中心指出，没有大学学位的人士存在陷入贫困或失业的风险。他们更有可能交更少的税，需要政府帮助，过着极不健康的生活，并且寿命更短。
Jennifer Ma is a senior researcher from The College Board. She said as older Americans retire, good jobs that require college degrees will remain unfilled. She called the drop in college attendance during the pandemic "a really scary number."
詹妮弗·马是美国大学理事会的高级研究员。她表示，随着美国老年人退休，需要大学学位的好工作会维持空缺。她称大流行期间大学入学率的下降是一个非常可怕的数字。
And Lane of Miami University added, "what we're seeing right now is hospitals understaffed, supply chain concerns, schools closing because we don't have enough people to keep them open."
迈阿密大学的莱恩补充说：“我们现在看到的是医院人手不足、供应链问题、学校关闭，因为我们没有足够人手来维持它们的开放。”
Increased international competition
国际竞争加剧
As fewer Americans are going to college, countries including China, Canada, Korea, and Russia are investing more in higher education.
随着美国大学入学人数减少，中国、加拿大、韩国和俄罗斯等国正在加大对高等教育的投资。
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development notes that the U.S. is now 12th among its 38 member countries in adults with college degrees. Just 20 years ago, the U.S. was third.
经合组织指出，在具有大学学位的成年人数量上，美国在该组织的38个成员国中排名第12位。就在20年前，美国还排第3。
China is one country making progress. Since 2000, China has increased its number of college students from 7.4 million to nearly 45 million in 2018. The information comes from World Education Services.
中国是取得进步的国家之一。中国大学生人数从2000年的740万增加到了2018年的近4500万。该信息来自于世界教育服务。
Another study from Georgetown University says that by 2025, China will be producing nearly two times the number of students with advanced degrees in science, engineering, technology, and math each year than the U.S.
乔治城大学的另一项研究表明，到2025年，中国每年培养的拥有科学、工程、技术和数学高等学位的学生人数将是美国的近两倍。
Jamil Salmi is a higher education expert who once worked at the World Bank. He said the lack of Americans with college degrees may lead companies to move businesses to countries with more highly educated citizens.
贾米尔·萨尔米是一位曾在世界银行工作的高等教育专家。他说，拥有大学学历的美国人短缺，可能会导致公司将业务转移到公民受过高等教育的国家。
Some benefits
一些好处
The college attendance "crisis," as Miami's Lane put it, could result in some good news in the U.S. Some who study labor think employers will consider life experience a little more when offering people jobs.
正如迈阿密大学的莱恩所言，大学入学危机可能会给美国带来一些好消息。一些研究劳工的人士认为，雇主在招工时会更多的考虑生活经验。
Monty Sullivan is president of Louisiana Community and Technical College System. He said companies are starting to think about a person's skills more than whether they have a "piece of paper," meaning a college degree.
蒙提·沙利文是路易斯安那州社区和技术学院体系的主席。他说，公司会开始考虑一个人的技能，而不是他们是否拥有一纸文凭，也就是大学学位。
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia recently found more job listings that pay above the national median wage are open to people without college degrees.
费城联邦储备银行最近发现， 有更多工资高于全国工资中位数的职位列表对没有大学学历的人士开放。
At the same time, if the number of students stays low, the business of higher education will be hurt. For example, colleges will not need as many professors and support workers. About four million people work in higher education in the U.S. and a recent study from the National Center for Education Statistics showed that colleges and universities combine to spend over $630 billion per year.
与此同时，如果学生人数维持低位，高等教育的业务将会受到损害。例如，大学将不需要那么多的教职工。美国大约有400万人从事高等教育工作，同时美国国家教育统计中心最新一项研究表明，大专院校每年的总支出超过6300亿美元。
Rodriguez, from the University of Michigan, said with fewer students, colleges might have to make it easier for others, especially those from poor families, to get into and finish college.
来自密歇根大学的罗德里格斯表示，由于学生人数减少，大学可能不得不让其他人，尤其是那些来自贫困家庭的人员更容易进入大学并完成学业。
"It's not just about productivity or workforce development, though all of those things are true," she said. "It's about making opportunities available to students."
她表示：“这不仅仅是关于生产力或是劳动力发展，尽管所以这些都是真实的。这是关于给学生提供机会。”
I'm Jill Robbins. And I'm Dan Friedell.
我是吉尔·罗宾斯。我是丹·弗里德尔。(51VOA.COM原创翻译，请勿转载，违者必究！)